Not much has changed over the past 24hrs in the thinking for the upcoming week. We are seeing another shortwave move through the mean flow across the Eastern United States as we speak. This is reinforcing the cold and allowing for some extra cloud cover to move into the area. This cloud cover should linger through the afternoon due to the active suptropical jet; however, we should clear out for this evening. That is not good news for those who do not like freezing temperatures as temps will drop like a rock after dark. A FREEZE WARNING is in effect for all areas overnight tonight. Even colder temps are expected Tue AM. Here are some numbers…
Tuesday- Mostly Sunny and Cold. Highs around 45. Lows around 28.
Wednesday- Filtered Sunshine and Cold. Highs around 49. Lows around 31.
Now for the main event. All models are still in agreement on bringing a strong shortwave out of Western Canada and driving very cold arctic air all the way down to the Gulf Coast. Some differences exist in the details with the storm system that is expected to develop ahead of this upper trough but the overall thinking has not changed. There will be two seperate big events…
First, the storm…
A surface low will develop in the northern gulf on Thursday. This storm should track right along the La coast bringing an increased chance for rain. Now the question remains do we see any frozen precip out of this? I think places north of a line from Alexandria, La to McComb, Ms to Montgomery, Al are in the certain category of seeing snow/sleet/freezing rain. All places South of that line need to continue to monitor the situation. Shreveport, La to Jackson, Ms to Birmingham, Al and points North will see mostly snow with maybe a mix from time to time. I am worried that places just south of that line could be dealing with a freezing rain/sleet event before transitioning to all snow. There still remains a lot of time between now and then, but I just wanted to give a general problem area for frozen precip.
Second, the cold…
The second big story with this system will be the extreme cold that will move in for Friday-Monday. Models indicate a 1050MB+ high diving straight out of Canada. As usual with these types of Arctic fronts, models struggle with timing and the amount of cold air. Given the amount of cold air already in place across much of the country and the expansive snowpack to our north, we will not see much moderation of this airmass as it heads south. One saving grace we can look for to keep temps from falling too much is the subtropical jet throwing some high clouds over us by Friday/Saturday. Some prelim numbers…
Friday AM- Becoming Sunny and Very Windy. VERY COLD!!!!! Lows around 23 Southshore, 18 Northshore. Winds 10-20mph, with gusts to 30mph. Wind Chills between 0-10F.
Friday- Mostly Sunny and Windy. VERY COLD! Highs around 31. Wind Chills in the 10′s.
Saturday AM- Mostly Sunny and Breezy. VERY COLD! Lows around 19 Southshore, 13 Northshore. Wind Chills -5 to 10F.
Saturday- Mostly Sunny and VERY COLD! Highs around 32.
Sunday AM- Mostly Sunny and VERY COLD! Lows around 22 Southshore, 16 Northshore.
Sunday- Mostly Sunny and becoming Breezy. Very Cold! Highs around 37.
This is pipe busting weather and it is in everyones best interest to wrap exposed pipes and weather proof your home over the next few days. Cold of this magnitude could be life threatening; thus, everyone should check on the elderly and make sure all heating utilities are properly working. Also, make plans to bring in your pets and plants. If an animal must stay outdoors, make sure they have adequate shelter and continue to refill food/water as these temperatures will freeze those items in very short periods of time.
More over the next few days…
Zack Fradella
