Some of the latest model guidance I will look at for this event is rolling on in currently. By Friday AM, the focus goes from watching the models and turns to watching radars, along with upper-level data. Everything remains the same from yesterday’s blog with just some timing updates and more in depth analysis on what will occur.

Computer models continue to develop a surface low in the Gulf of Mexico Friday afternoon.  This is in response to a vort max rotating around a large longwave trough that is dropping out of Canada. As this surface low strengthens and tracks off our coastline, cold Arctic air will move in from the north. This will begin to change rain to snow from West to East. The question still remains how much and how far South does the snow make it?

My thinking:

Bufkit soundings for KHOU(Houston), KLCH(Lake Charles), KBTR(Baton Rouge), and KCMB(McComb) all support total snow with no mixture. This means that from West to East points in and around these locations will change to all snow. Houston obviously will change to snow during the day Friday, Lake Charles will be next by 2-3PM on Friday afternoon. Finally, Baton Rouge and the rest of the northshore will change over around 7PM. Soundings support all snow; thus, accumulations should range between 1-3″, with some localized areas between 4-6″. Those areas that can manage to get underneath a strong band where snow growth is maximized will possibly get to that 4-6″ category.

On the other hand, the metro New Orleans area and places South of the Lake do look to see a mixture after 9PM. Bufkit soundings for New Orleans show a cold rain through 9PM Friday night. Thereafter, the upper-air will rapidly cool and by 10PM a mixture of sleet/rain/snow should occur. The problem here is what moisture will be left once the atmosphere is primed for frozen precip? The NAM still indicates precip will be falling in the form of snow around Midnight-3AM, while the GFS tries to pull the precip out quicker leaving New Orleans high and dry once the upper atmosphere can support snow.  Only time will tell!

-Zack Fradella

Not very often I have a chance to write a blog about snow in New Orleans so it took me some time to develop that title. However, that title could have some wording added within the next 24hrs. Instead of question marks, exclamation points could find a way to mingle with that ”Snow”. This snowstorm could become reality as computer models continue to show good consistency and are all beginning to agree on the snow scenario.

Living in the South you hate to jump the gun too early on snow events since many times they never materialize; however, one must remember snow events do occur from time to time. Right now, all computer models develop a surface low in the Gulf of Mexico Friday afternoon.  This is in response to a vort max rotating around a large longwave trough that is dropping out of Canada. As this surface low strengthens and tracks off our coastline, cold Arctic air will move in from the north. This will begin to change rain to snow from West to East. The question is how much and how far South does the snow make it?

Here is my thinking:

Bufkit soundings for KHOU(Houston), KLCH(Lake Charles), KBTR(Baton Rouge), and KCMB(McComb) all support total snow with no mixture. This means that from West to East points in and around these locations will change to all snow. Houston obviously will change to snow during the day Friday, Lake Charles will be next by 2-3PM on Friday afternoon. Finally, Baton Rouge and the rest of the northshore will change over in the 10PM-Midnight timeframe. Soundings support all snow, and I am worried about accumulations in these locations but more on that as we get closer to the event.

On the other hand, the metro New Orleans area and places South of the Lake are borderline. Bufkit soundings for New Orleans show a cold rain through Midnight Friday night. Thereafter, rapid cooling processes take over and by 3AM a mixture of sleet/rain/snow may occur. By 5AM, the sounding becomes total snow. The problem here is what moisture will be left at that point? One model shows moisture should stick around through 8AM which would produce snowfall across Metro New Orleans, while another model shuts things off quickly around 5-6AM. Right now, I am calling for all rain with a mixture of Rain/Sleet/Snow occuring after 3AM.

That is all for tonight but with winter weather it is a track meet and things change quickly due to cooling processes in the atmosphere. Thus, only time will tell the tale of white or smite!

God Bless! -Zack Fradella

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE, LA TO MEXICO BEACH, FL

 
A HURRICANE WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT

A TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT 

Hurricane Ida continues to slowly strengthen this morning as she moves through the Yucatan Channel. Ida should be in the Gulf of Mexico within the next few hours and conditions remain favorable for some slow strengthening. It is not out of the question Ida may become a Category 2 hurricane and some of the latest hurricane hunter data  indicates winds may have increased to 100mph. Conditions should become unfavorable once the storm reaches the northern Gulf; however, Ida will be picking-up speed at that point and this should not allow for much weakening before landfall.

Another big question mark with Ida is where will she make landfall. Models are clustered from Southeastern La over to Pensacola, Fl. It is prudent to split the difference and bring Ida into the Mobile area. Please stay tuned for any changes that may occur over the next 24hrs.

If the current track holds true, the following impacts should be expected…

This evening is when things will go downhill for our area as winds increase and the rain slowly moves in.

Monday AM-  Rain Increases, Heavy Rain & Flooding Possible. Breezy! Winds: 15-25mph, with gusts to 35mph. 

Monday Afternoon- Heavy Rain, Flooding Possible. Windy! Winds: 25-35mph, with gusts to 45mph.

Monday PM- Heavy Rain, Flooding Possible. Very Windy! Winds: 30-40mph, with gusts to 65mph.

Tuesday AM- Rain Ending, Cloudy. Windy! Winds: 15-25mph, with gusts to 40mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATEMENT

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH…NOW IS THE TIME TO BEGIN PREPARING YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS ACCORDING TO YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE READY TO EVACUATE IF NECESSARY. HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS THAT ARE ISSUED. FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS…DOCKS…AND MARINAS…IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU PERFORM THE PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT…BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO LEAVE IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS. REGARDING THE COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WATCH…SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR. CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION… PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR LOCATION AS
FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

Tropical Storm Ida is strengthening and heading towards the Central Gulf.

After such a quiet Hurricane Season, you have to look twice when you hear a headline like that, especially in November. It’s true however, and some big changes have occured since Friday evening.

Ida has organized quickly since moving off the coast of Honduras yesterday afternoon and is showing signs of becoming a hurricane this morning. Intense convection continues to fire around the center of circulation and a well organized CDO is visible in IR satellite. Also, a microwave pass from this morning indicates an eye-like feature has developed, along with well organized banding. This is all indicative of a strengthening storm and aircraft reconn should confirm the intensity shortly. 

On the other hand, the track guidance has made a shift closer to SE LA overnight. The GFS/EURO both indicate a continued NNW movement directly towards the La coast but once around the Mouth of the River, Ida then makes a loop just offshore and gets torn to pieces by the approaching shortwave. This is a much closer approach than we were expecting yesterday; therefore, it is becoming likely that we could experience Tropical Storm conditions on Monday evening.

What to expect…

Sunday evening is when things will go downhill for our area as winds increase and the rain slowly moves in. By Monday morning the rain should increase in intensity leading to the possibility of street flooding. Winds should be around 15-25mph, with gusts to 35mph. The weather on Monday morning will be associated with the non-tropical low coming out of the Western Gulf. Ida begins to move into the area by late afternoon on Monday bringing a more drastic increase in the wind and rain squalls. The worst weather will occur Monday evening into Tuesday morning. This is when winds should be sustained 25-35mph, with gusts to 60mph. These strong winds can down tree limbs and cause lawn furniture to go airborne. Please take precautions to tie down those loose objects in and around your homes this weekend.

Have a great day and God Bless!

It is one difficult task to forecast a tropical system correctly but when you add a cold front along with the month of November into the mix it becomes almost impossible.

This is what we are dealing with as we end the first work week of the month of November. Former Hurricane Ida is now pushing off the coast of  Honduras and into the Northwestern Caribbean Sea. Ida is expected to slowly strengthen over the next few days as she heads towards the Central Gulf. Most models indicate Ida taking a hard right turn before reaching the Northern Gulf Coast; however, there is the potential that Ida could move quicker than first thought and pose a landfall threat. Still it is too early to determine where Ida will eventually make landfall, if she even makes one at all. On the flip side, the intensity is not of concern since the northern Gulf is cool and upper-level winds are unfavorable like they should be at this time of year.

As residents of Southeast La know, we do not need a hurricane to cause problems around here and even the weakest storms can create major issues for our area. The National Weather Service has already placed the coastline under a coastal flood watch and this is due to the fact that the wind will pile up the water along the coast creating some minor coastal flooding.

So what to expect…

If the track holds true, we will experience a good bit of squally weather from Monday thru Wednesday morning. Rainfall could be on the heavy side and street flooding is a possibility. Ida will be transitioning from a tropical system into a extratropical cyclone when the storm is approaching our area. This means that the strongest winds with Ida may not be near the core of the storm and strong winds may be felt far away from the center of the storm. At this time the strongest winds will most likely be on the northern side of Ida where the pressure gradient is tightest; therefore, expect sustained winds of 20-30mph with gusts as high as 55mph. These strong winds can down tree limbs and cause lawn furniture to go airborne. Please take precautions to tie down those loose objects in and around your homes over the weekend.

Speaking of the weekend, everyone should get out and enjoy the beautiful weather before things go downhill on Monday. 

I hope everyone has a wonderful weekend!

Hurricane Bill-Top Left, New Disturbance-Bottom Right

 

Hurricane Bill

Hurricane Bill continues as a Category 3 hurricane just Southwest of Bermuda. Bill is moving towards a weakness in the subtropical ridge that has developed due to a strong upper-level trough moving through the Eastern US. This trough is deep enough and progressing fast enough to keep Bill away from the New England coast. Even though Bill will remain offshore, conditions in Bermuda and along the New England coast will be dangerous over the next 48hrs. Strong gusty winds, high surf, and the increased risk for rip currents will continue over these areas through the weekend. Beach goers are urged to avoid the water.

Bill looks to have reached his peak intensity and should slowly weaken as he heads towards cooler waters and higher wind shear. A transition into a extratropical cyclone should begin after 72hrs.

Area of Interest

A new area of interest has developed Southwest of the Cape Verde islands. A small area of convection developed earlier today and has persisted through the day. Some slight low-level turning was noted on visible satellite earlier today. Models are not showing much excitment on developing this system; however, conditions appear favorable for some slow development over the next few days.

After a few long blogs, a short and sweet one is certainly welcome. The shortness is mostly due to the fact that the tropics are quieting down just a tad. Even though we will most likely see Bill become a major hurricane within the next few days, Ana & Claudette have been erased from the picture.

HURRICANE BILL

Hurricane Bill continues to move at a high rate of speed through the open Atlantic. Warm waters and favorable upper-level conditions are allowing Bill to intensify at a steady rate. At this time satellite indicates the inner-core of Bill is starting to become established and once this is complete we could see Bill go into a rapid instensification phase. Bill will remain underneath anticyclonic flow over the next 2-3 days; therefore,  I see no reason why Bill will not become a major hurricane and could possibly grow into a strong Category 4 storm. After 84hrs Bill will begin to approach a weakness off the Atlantic seaboard which in turn will bring the storm closer to the westerlies. This should lead to some leveling off of the intensity and possibly allow Bill to slowly weaken as the storm progresses northward.

Bill is located on the Southeast side of a strong ridge of high pressure located between the Eastern US and Bermuda. This ridge will begin to weaken over the next 24hrs as a trough progresses across the Great Lakes. Within 24-36hrs Bill should turn towards the Northwest and start to feel this weakness. Beyond 84hrs, Bill should be north of the Caribbean islands and recurving into this weakness. Models have shifted closer to the US Coast and all residents located in Bermuda  and along the US East Coast should continue to monitor the progress of this potentially dangerous storm. It should be noted that track errors in the 4 and 5 day range can be quite large.

FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA

Hurricane hunters went into Ana earlier this afternoon and could not locate a closed low-level circulation. This means that Ana has weakened into a open wave. Conditions are not favorable for regeneration until possibly the Gulf of Mexico later this week.

TROPICAL STORM ANA

It took a little longer than first thought but we finally have Tropical Storm Ana. Not to mention, Tropical Storm Bill is just around the corner.

After all, it is former TD #2 that has acquired the name Tropical Storm Ana. TD #2 weakened into a remnant area of low pressure a few days ago as dry air and strong upper-level wind shear took a toll on the systems organization. However, the system began to develop convection on Friday morning and continued to persist that convection for most of the day. By late last night the storm had acquired enough organization to be reclassified as TD #2.

Quikscat and satellite estimates from this morning have indicated TD #2 has become Tropical Storm Ana. Ana is in a small pocket of favorable conditions with strong upper-level wind shear to the north and dry air to the west. This small pocket may only allow for strengthening for the next 24hrs before conditions become hostile again. If Ana can survive the next 2-3 days, anticyclonic flow aloft should develop over the system allowing for Ana to restrengthen. It should be noted that there is much uncertainty in intensity forecasting and the margins for error can be quite large.

Ana is south of the subtropical ridge; therefore, a continued westerly motion is expected through 48hrs. The upper-level trough that could possibly shear Ana will create a small weakness in the ridge, leading to a more west-northwest motion after 48hrs. At the end of the five day forecast track the storm should be located south of a strong ridge along the East Coast. This will most likely keep Ana on a path towards Florida and the Gulf of Mexico. Models are in good agreement on a general path towards South Florida and the Florida Straits.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION #3

Invest 90L has continued to become better organized over the past 24hrs, and I expect the NHC to initiate advisories at 11AM. Therefore, I will be calling this system TD #3 in this blog. Morning visible satellite images indicate good banding has developed along with a small CDO over the low-level circulation. Now the convection remains on the weak side but enough organization is there to determine this system is not far from being named Tropical Storm Bill. TD #3 is dealing with some easterly shear but not to the extent that caused TD #2 to weaken into a remnant area of low pressure. The environment will slowly get better as TD #3 continues to track westward across the Atlantic. Early on models were showing this system deepening quite rapidly but have now backed-off on the intensity a bit. The process should be slow but strengthening is forecast through the five day forecast period.

Track models are very clustered on a track just north of the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. Usually being five days away you have a good bit of spread in the models but that is not the case this morning. The only model that seems out to lunch is the EUROPEAN model which takes TD #3 straight out into the open Atlantic. This seems unlikely considering the strong subtropical ridge to the north and also the fact that no other model is hinting at this scenario. Beyond the five-day forecast cycle many things can occur. A trough will develop over the Eastern US and could possibly sweep TD #3 up the East Coast or the trough could not be strong enough and TD #3 may make its way into the Gulf. Still too many questions to pinpoint exactly where TD #3 will go beyond five days.

The Atlantic Hurricane Season that is. Over the first two months and one week of hurricane season we saw very little tropical action over the Atlantic Ocean. Very little action is being generous because the tropical atlantic was downright dead. Anyway, it was a welcome sight to many as the past few years have started roaring along right when the Calender struck June 1st. That has not been the case this year but we knew the time was coming when things would get busy and that time is now here.

The map above indicates two areas being closely monitored for future development and one area already declared a tropical depression. The image above is not current and is a computer model’s look into the future.

Tropical Depression #2
TD#2 has had a rough go of it ever since being declared by the NHC. TD#2 is located in marginal SST’s, has a tremendous amount of dry air located ahead of it, and is sitting in an area of strong easterly wind shear. Those three ingredients are very detrimental to hurricane develop and sometimes can cause tropical systems to dissipate altogether. Even with so many things going against the system, TD #2 organized a ball of deep convection earlier today and looked certain to obtain Tropical Storm status. However, over the past few hours the convection has weakened and the wind shear has displaced any convection west of the main low-level circulation. Visible satellite just before sunset showed a partially naked low-level circulation and this is due to the very unfavorable upper-level environment over TD#2. The low-level environment is not much better as an abundance of dry air is located to the north of the system. Usually tropical systems over the open Atlantic have good inflow from the south but this is not the case with TD#2 as the southern inflow is being cutoff by the new disturbance just coming off the coast of Africa. I do not think TD#2 will do much strengthening but a general fluctuation between Tropical Storm status and Tropical Depression status is certainly possible. A general West motion should continue over the next few days. I will hold off on speaking beyond five days until we get a better understanding of what TD#2 will do intensity wise.

Gulf Disturbance
The next disturbance I will talk about is the one closest to home located in the Gulf of Mexico. Now, this disturbance is not in the Gulf at this time but computer models have indicated possible development of a tropical wave as it moves into the Gulf over the weekend. The image above is off the GFS model and it shows an almost closed-off circulation located off the La/Ms/Al coast. The EUROPEAN model has also hinted at this. Any development would occur over the weekend into early next week and the system would track towards the Northern Gulf Coast(Louisiana/Mississippii/Alabama). Stay tuned!

African Disturbance
The final disturbance we are watching moved off the African coast yesterday. The system has been the talk on many weather forums due to the fact models have consistently developed this storm into a powerful hurricane. If TD#2 can develop into Ana, this new storm would be named Bill. However, at the rate TD#2 has been going we may see this storm actually get named first. The environment is much better for this new disturbance since it sits further south and east of TD#2. More moisture, less wind shear, and higher SST’s are located along the path of this disturbance so development is expected over the next 24-48hrs. I would not be surprised to see Ana/Bill within the next 48hrs. Down the road, the GFS/EUROPEAN models both show this disturbance becoming a very intense hurricane. A general westward track should be expected over the next five days. Beyond that, the northern Lesser Antilles may be first to become directly affected by this system; however any forecast 5+ days can change drastically.

None of these systems post any real threat to anyone at this time; therefore, relax and just keep tabs on the latest.

We have been talking about it for over a week now and now it looks to be happening. The arctic air, which has been poised to make a trip South, will finally do so later this week. Models have backed away from historic cold but it surely will get cold around here with freezing temperatures areawide. Thursday will be the start of cold weekend!

QUICK NUMBERS

       Wednesday                Thursday                     Friday                     Saturday

                                                           

Lo: 28N,33S   Hi:56     Lo: 35N,40S   Hi:45     Lo:18N,26S  Hi:39      Lo:20N,29S   Hi:50

DETAILED FORECAST

Wednesday AM- Clear and COLD. Lows around 28 Northshore, 33 Southshore.

Wednesday- Mostly Sunny and Cool. Highs around 56.

Thursday AM- Clear and COLD. Turning Windy! Winds 10-20mph, Gusts to 30mph. Lows around 35 Northshore, 40 Southshore. Feels like the 20’s.

Thursday- Sunny and COLD.  Windy! Winds 10-20mph, Gusts to 30mph. Highs around 45, Falling Into 30’s By Late Afternoon.

Friday AM- Clear and VERY COLD. Breezy! Lows around 18 Northshore, 26 Southshore. Will Feel Like 0’s and 10’s.

Friday- Sunny and COLD. Breezy! Highs around 39.

Saturday AM- Clear and VERY COLD. Lows around 20 Northshore, 29 Southshore.

Saturday- Sunny and Continued Cold. Highs around 50.

 

Sunday begins a slow warm-up but the pattern reloads for another arctic outbreak later next week. The end of January looks like we will see continued cold with maybe some fun times.

 

*Images Provided By Meteo Consult*

 

Zack Fradella